ECB fixing of 2026-10-01
FX volatility today
How much each currency pair is moving, in percent and in pips, and whether that is unusual for it. Use the typical daily move to sanity-check stop distances and position sizes.
| Pair | ECB fixing | Realized vol (20d, annual) | Typical daily move | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.12980 | 4.5% | 32 pips (0.28%) | Low |
| GBP/USD | 1.32337 | 4.8% | 40 pips (0.30%) | Low |
| USD/JPY | 157.984 | 8.8% | 88 pips (0.56%) | Normal |
| USD/CHF | 0.83528 | 5.7% | 30 pips (0.36%) | Low |
| AUD/USD | 0.69505 | 5.3% | 23 pips (0.33%) | Low |
| USD/CAD | 1.42459 | 3.7% | 33 pips (0.23%) | Low |
| NZD/USD | 0.56150 | 6.2% | 22 pips (0.39%) | Low |
| EUR/GBP | 0.85373 | 2.5% | 13 pips (0.16%) | Low |
| EUR/JPY | 178.490 | 6.9% | 77 pips (0.43%) | Normal |
| GBP/JPY | 209.071 | 6.8% | 90 pips (0.43%) | Normal |
| EUR/CHF | 0.94370 | 3.7% | 22 pips (0.23%) | Normal |
| AUD/JPY | 109.806 | 8.1% | 56 pips (0.51%) | Normal |
| EUR/AUD | 1.62550 | 3.3% | 34 pips (0.21%) | Low |
| GBP/CHF | 1.10539 | 4.6% | 32 pips (0.29%) | Normal |
| CAD/JPY | 110.898 | 8.1% | 56 pips (0.51%) | Normal |
| CHF/JPY | 189.138 | 8.1% | 96 pips (0.51%) | Normal |
| EUR/CAD | 1.60950 | 2.6% | 26 pips (0.16%) | Low |
| AUD/NZD | 1.23784 | 4.0% | 32 pips (0.26%) | Normal |
| GBP/AUD | 1.90400 | 4.4% | 53 pips (0.28%) | Low |
| NZD/JPY | 88.708 | 7.4% | 41 pips (0.46%) | Normal |
| USD/ZAR | 16.54576 | 7.0% | 725 pips (0.44%) | Low |
| EUR/ZAR | 18.69340 | 4.9% | 573 pips (0.31%) | Low |
| USD/MXN | 18.16702 | 8.8% | 1004 pips (0.55%) | Normal |
| USD/SEK | 10.02921 | 6.6% | 418 pips (0.42%) | Low |
| USD/NOK | 9.62560 | 6.7% | 405 pips (0.42%) | Low |
| USD/PLN | 3.87104 | 7.4% | 181 pips (0.47%) | Normal |
| USD/TRY | 49.03461 | 1.7% | 516 pips (0.10%) | Low |
| USD/HUF | 324.996 | 9.4% | 194 pips (0.59%) | Normal |
Method and limits
- Prices are the European Central Bank's euro reference rates, one fixing a business day around 14:10 CET. Crosses are derived through the euro. Volatility estimates and regimes are calculated by FXPM Labs.
- Realized volatility is the root mean square of daily log returns over 20 fixings, annualized with 252 trading days. The typical daily move is the same figure before annualizing.
- The regime compares today's 20-day figure with the past three years: below the 25th percentile is low, above the 75th is high and above the 95th is extreme.
- One fixing a day measures close-to-close moves. Intraday ranges are wider, and fixing-to-fixing data misses moves that reverse within the day.
- Volatility describes how much a price moves, not which way. Nothing here is a trading recommendation.
Source: European Central Bank euro foreign exchange reference rates; volatility estimates derived by FXPM Labs. Data as of 2026-10-01.
Questions
What is a normal level of volatility for EUR/USD?
Over the past three years its 20-day realized volatility has mostly sat between the 25th and 75th percentiles shown on its page. Today it is at the 18th percentile.
How is the typical daily move in pips calculated?
It is the 20-day realized daily volatility multiplied by the current price and divided by the pip size. Roughly two days in three move less than this amount, if returns behave normally.
Can volatility predict direction?
No. Volatility measures the size of moves in either direction. It is used for sizing positions and setting stops, not for picking direction.