ECB fixing of 2026-10-01
USD/TRY volatility
USD/TRY is moving about 516 pips a day, close to close, which is low for this pair: higher than 9% of the past three years.
Realized vol (20d)1.7%annualized
Typical daily move516 pips0.10% of price
RegimeLow9th percentile, 3 years
ECB fixing49.034612026-10-01
A stop at 1.5 times the typical daily move would be about 775 pips. Size a trade with that stop in the position size calculator.
Method and limits
- Prices are the European Central Bank's euro reference rates, one fixing a business day around 14:10 CET. Crosses are derived through the euro. Volatility estimates and regimes are calculated by FXPM Labs.
- Realized volatility is the root mean square of daily log returns over 20 fixings, annualized with 252 trading days. The typical daily move is the same figure before annualizing.
- The regime compares today's 20-day figure with the past three years: below the 25th percentile is low, above the 75th is high and above the 95th is extreme.
- One fixing a day measures close-to-close moves. Intraday ranges are wider, and fixing-to-fixing data misses moves that reverse within the day.
- Volatility describes how much a price moves, not which way. Nothing here is a trading recommendation.
Source: European Central Bank euro foreign exchange reference rates; volatility estimates derived by FXPM Labs. Data as of 2026-10-01.
Questions
How many pips does USD/TRY move a day?
Over the last 20 ECB fixings its typical daily move was about 516 pips (0.10%), measured close to close. Intraday ranges are wider.
Is USD/TRY volatility high right now?
It is in the low regime: the current 20-day figure is above 9% of readings from the past three years.